What are the chances of a second american civil war 2020 civil war in the traditional sense is low, but a modern civil conflict, marked by decentralized violence, political unrest, and institutional strain, is a credible threat, with a 20–30% probability over the next decade. I think even in a second civil war, the fighting factions would still find a way to run a playoff and each field a team on neutral site for a Natty. Everything going on in Texas, and with 'wokeness' is all political grandstanding, which is just going to be forgotten after our next presidential election. May 21, 2024 · Nearly Half of Americans Think U. Could California's bold moves ignite a national crisis? Apr 11, 2024 · Such jitters aren’t uncommon – according to a 2022 poll by YouGov and the Economist, 40 per cent of Americans think a new civil war is “at least somewhat likely in the next 10 years”. Dec 15, 2023 · The trailer for Alex Garland‘s anticipated action movie “Civil War,” has dropped, set in the near future and depicting the U. , finding that all of the factors making civil war likely are currently present. Walter: Most people, when they think about another American civil war, they think about an 1860s version of a civil war, and they immediately think that will never happen again. With Trump's victory in the 2020 elections, the Democratic Party fell into disarray, with its far left representatives defecting to the new Socialist Party, prompting the formation of a Republican-Democrat coalition that managed to suppress the socialists and other growing independent parties. The likelihood hinges on whether polarizing trends—like distrust in elections, economic inequality, or regional divides—reach a breaking point. Capitol, we wanted to reflect on a few questions that many Americans are asking these days: Is democracy on the brink of the collapse? Why are U. In similar fashion, I believe one likely spark for the Second American Civil War will be the result of a coup d’etat carried out by anti-America extremists. D. What are the chances this actually happens in the next, say, 20 years (or whatever timeframe you wish to discuss)? Is all the Big Igloo crap just a bunch of chest pounding, or do you really think half the country will get so fed up with the other half that a Civil War could be reality? Posted: 6/28/2020 11:39:56 AM EDT [#1] Aug 30, 2025 · Commanders and leaders The Second American Civil War is a civil conflict that takes place in the United States of America in late 2021 or early 2022 as a result of political polarization and extremism which causes a total collapse of the central government. I’m not engaging in hyperbole. Milita Aug 29, 2024 · The United States is now showing preconditions for political violence, scholars say. (Getty). May 14, 2020 · The driving force behind the US Civil War was slavery, and there are no issues as serious as slavery in today's political climate. The 2024 film Civil War explored this question through the lens of a group of journalists traveling from New York City to Washington, D. Mar 16, 2024 · Leading American white supremacists, who have long been among the foremost advocates of civil war and sedition, have cited the Northern Irish exemplar and the province’s preeminent terrorist Jul 2, 2020 · Gary Dull is co-hosting. The American Civil War is our most deadly war, and a second one I feel would almost certainly top that. The " Second American Civil War " is an umbrella term used by academics in order to reclassify historical eras of significant political violence in the history of the United States as a "civil war" or, more commonly, to discuss the potential outbreak of a future Oct 27, 2020 · Experts say that a new civil conflict will look nothing like the last American Civil War, but that the country is on the verge of large scale political violence. The war was fought between Nov 4, 2024 · Celebrated best-selling author Erik Larson addresses the prospect of an American Civil War II. Along the way, she discovered some of those predictors apply to the Jan 5, 2023 · Overview As we approach the second anniversary of the Jan. ”25 Laura Ingraham, 2020: “[Democrats] despise you, your patriotism, your churchgoing, your Judeo-Christian values, your belief in personal responsibility and a work ethic, your big families, your SUVs, your guns Jun 28, 2020 · What are the chances this actually happens in the next, say, 20 years (or whatever timeframe you wish to discuss)? Is all the Big Igloo crap just a bunch of chest pounding, or do you really think half the country will get so fed up with the other half that a Civil War could be reality? Posted: 6/28/2020 11:39:56 AM EDT [#1] Jan 4, 2022 · We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Oct 24, 2024 · Never mind Trump losing the election, America’s next civil war has already started – this is how it will end As a new poll shows that more than a quarter of Americans believe civil war could There is also a stronger chance for a second civil war to break out in the years after the first if the issues weren't resolved. Jan 4, 2022 · Is the United States careening toward a second civil war? Canadian novelist and commentator Stephen Marche is among the most confident of the pessimists. In the United States, anti-government extremists killed 42 people in 2019; in 2018, 53; in 2017, 37; in 2016, 72, and in 2015, 70″. ” Advertisement A new civil war wouldn’t look anything like America’s first one in the 1860s, where two opposing armies fought pitched battles. Jul 9, 2025 · As a war expert on a CIA panel, UC San Diego political scientist Barbara Walter helped forecast civil wars in other countries. While there is no imminent threat of armies clashing on Nov 4, 2024 · Celebrated best-selling author Erik Larson addresses the prospect of an American Civil War II. Either we’d end up with a long period of Bleeding America, and that would be the extent of the Second Civil War, or the States would each Bleed for a few months to a year or so before factions consolidate power in each one. It is more than 150 years since the American The vast majority of Americans do not want a civil war at all, even conservatives. Historically, events such as the American Revolutionary War, the Reconstruction Era, and the Coal Wars are viewed by some experts as embodying elements of civil war due to the internal divisions and violent Jan 5, 2022 · David Remnick writes about the growing threat of political violence in the United States, what a future civil war would look like, and how, a year after the attack on the Capitol, America is Mar 20, 2023 · Secession talk evokes fears of a second Civil War. Apr 17, 2024 · Above all, a civil war needs people eager for the fight — a lot of people for continentwide war of the kind depicted in the movie, but a critical mass even for a lower-grade form of civil strife Oct 30, 2024 · Although an actual civil war resulting from the 2024 election remains highly unlikely, a range of sufficiently alarming scenarios cannot be prudently dismissed or discounted—as the two recent attempts on former President Donald Trump’s life have shown. There can come a time when a civil war is more profitable, more strategic, for sections of the ruling class than the alternatives. Jun 6, 2025 · While history remembers the Civil War as a brutal but ultimately redemptive struggle to preserve the Union and end slavery, a Second American Civil War would more likely result in a shattered, weakened nation struggling to survive in a hostile and opportunistic world. Instead, I’m being May 16, 2023 · In 2018, Rasmussen reported that 31 percent of likely voters thought the United States would experience a second civil war within five years. ) was attacked by local rebels. Oct 25, 2022 · Abstract This article applies symbolic politics theory to assess the risk of a new civil war in the U. In an excerpt from his new book published Aug 2, 2025 · The "Second American Civil War" is an umbrella term used by academics in order to reclassify historical eras of significant political violence in the history of the United States as a "civil war" or, more commonly, to discuss the potential outbreak of a future civil war in the country. Nov 6, 2024 · Many Americans feared a second Civil War if Donald Trump, the Republican candidate, lost the 2024 US presidential election. Sep 4, 2024 · Ideologies Won’t Lead to an American Civil War By Andrew Blinkinsop – Ph. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Lee The American populace is arguably the most politically divided it has been since 1861, and many have speculated whether a second civil war is likely—or even inevitable. Is this just rubbish? What are the chances of the US citizenry, or a small portion of it, rising up against the government? Dec 7, 2024 · How Would a Second Civil War Play Out? The United States has experienced a tumultuous history, with numerous conflicts and divisions that have threatened the very fabric of the nation. Indicating the chance of violence, pro-Trump far-right groups said they were "prepared to do what it takes". Citizens of any state of any size, red or blue, may not have to go far to find a fight. Some are joining survivalist communities, canning food—and buying guns. An expert on 5 key steps we must take to avoid this fate. Think about after the US civil war and reconstruction, the rise of the KKK and US troops sent south to keep the peace. Nor would it resemble Alex Garland’s hit film Civil Warthis year that depicted the US Air Force carrying out airstrikes on Jul 20, 2022 · Half of Americans agree somewhat that there will be civil war “in the next few years” and nearly one in five are similarly confident that they will soon arm themselves with a gun in a situation where political violence is justified, according to a nationally representative survey released July 19. Sep 22, 2020 · The United States never resolved the first civil war. Aug 14, 2022 · The far right is calling for civil war after the FBI raid on Trump's home. Sometimes it’s a certain number of people per year — usually, in the hundreds — and where those people are killed directly by violent clashes between those armed organized factions. Apr 11, 2024 · The blockbuster imagines sectarian conflict tearing apart the United States. Photo by Edouard TAMBA on Unsplash Donald Trump’s first presidential term was racked with scandals, allegations, and discord in both parties. Its authors say it's now pointing to "civil war". Therefore, a second civil war is not likely to occur in the United States. Civil wars aren’t always done on clear borders or based on single issues/identities. The idea of a second civil war has been around literally since within months of the end of the first one. Here’s how it can prevent disaster. , to cover the Dec 25, 2021 · Fear of a Second American Civil War is at an all-time high. Jan 6, 2022 · Half of all Americans think we may be facing another civil war. In the run-up to the 2024 US elections, there is talk of another civil war brewing over the country’s future. The term "Second American Civil War" refers to both historical evaluations of previous social upheavals in the United States and speculative discussions about potential future conflicts. Jul 28, 2025 · The original question assumes that there are warning signs of an impending civil war, rather than asking whether such signs exist. It feels closer than that… As the fallout of the attempted assassination of Donald Trump continues, Stephen Marche, author We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Gen. Thousands were preparing for it and created 'survivalist retreats'. It is also a description of a scenario for America if Trump loses. On the one ha… Jan 11, 2022 · In academic work, civil war is generally defined as a violent conflict between two organized, armed groups within a country that kills at least 1,000 people. Mar 19, 2025 · – Robert E. Professor Benjamin Cohen from the University of California-Santa Barbara Nov 4, 2024 · The Americans Prepping for a Second Civil War Many now believe that the U. Feb 20, 2024 · The American Civil War (1861-65) was fought over slavery and, to a lesser extent, states’ rights and the future of the economy. 6 attack on the U. Sep 19, 2022 · America’s second civil war could start with a bang or with a whimper. Apr 23, 2024 · Delve into an in-depth analysis of the potential for a second American Civil War, examining historical context, current societal tensions, and hypothetical outcomes. Jul 21, 2022 · A study released Wednesday found that about half of all Americans expect a civil war to occur “in the next few years. In conclusion, the likelihood of a second U. From historical context, current political climate, and cultural reflections. The fevered intensity of contemporary American politics has reached a dangerous crescendo, and violent clashes between opposing groups have already erupted. How realistic is its vision – and could it actually happen? Nov 4, 2021 · If there is a second American Civil War, which side would you choose? It may be wise to make that decision now, in the spirit of planning for the worst while hoping for the best. Candidate, University of California, Berkeley A civil war in the United States is extremely unlikely and, if it did emerge, would not look like Mr. amid a new civil war . civil war have spread to America’s neighbors, as Canada considers the possibility of a civil war in the United States as an “underanticipated disruption. It will catch most Americans by surprise. California could secede from the US, sparking a second Civil War within the next 10 years, a political expert has revealed. ” Researchers from the University of California-Davis Violence Prevention … Mar 21, 2025 · A rough estimate might place the odds at 10-20% over two decades, assuming current tensions persist or worsen. Could See Another Civil War More than 160 years after the Civil War began, nearly half of Americans think it is either very likely or likely that they will see a second civil war. On the famous day of September 11, 2028, nearly 4 years after the second American civil war started, Biden authorized a medium sized volley of nuclear strikes on rebel soil. Like all the soldiers who took a break on Christmas Reply reply BBQ_HaX0r • Dec 9, 2024 · Exploring the likelihood of a second American Civil War, societal unrest, and political division, amid rising tensions, polarization, and constitutional crises in the United States. The reality is the U. Understand the factors that influence political polarization and explore expert insights on the likelihood of civil conflict in the modern United States. Jun 16, 2023 · The Fire Rises USA Civil War 2020 - 2028 - Hoi4 Timelapse Trump Forces a Playdate with Xi Jinping & MTG Makes Too Much Sense for Desi Lydic | The Daily Show Mar 16, 2024 · Leading American white supremacists, who have long been among the foremost advocates of civil war and sedition, have cited the Northern Irish exemplar and the province’s preeminent terrorist Nov 1, 2024 · According to the DHS bulletins, there is a “heightened risk” that domestic violent extremists could “attempt to initiate civil war. Reply reply Akul_Tesla • Almost non-existent Look the Fed would crush anyone who tried to actually start one Even without that fighting the average American citizen is actually not a good idea they're kind of loaded with firearms Reply reply Limp Sean Hannity, 2018: “Sadly there is not one Democrat in this country tonight, not one, speaking out and supporting law, order, American sovereignty, borders, our constitution. American conflicts are escalating. ” What Would a Second US Civil War Really Look Like? Warfronts 1. Jan 9, 2022 · We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. I’m not exaggerating. Researchers at the University of California, Davis, questioned 8,600 people in May and early Jul 16, 2025 · I wrote the book "Winning the Second Civil War: Without Firing a Shot" just after the 2020 election and the invented insurrection the media created out of the January 6 riot. Jul 24, 2024 · Examine triggers, consequences, and scenarios of a second American Civil War. Paul Eaton says war-gaming and civics education could help assure that the military is better prepared for a contested election. Sullivan’s fever dream of environmental vigilantes and libertarian crypto rebels. Mar 20, 2022 · If a new civil war breaks out in America, here are the 3 places it's most likely to start Jul 17, 2024 · I predicted the next US civil war would be in 2040 – but l was wrong. Is act two just around the corner? We’re trying to bring some focus and some help to what we see happening on the streets of America today. The Divided States encompasses several animatic and live-action projects based on the world of ‘Kaiserreich’, the world’s most comprehensive fan-built alt Jul 27, 2022 · “The definition of civil conflict [or civil strife, the step preceding civil war] begins with 25 deaths in a year. A recent public Nov 18, 2024 · How Likely is a Second American Civil War? The United States has a complex and tumultuous history, marked by periods of great social change and conflict. The odds of his success are much lower without full access to the levers of power, but that hasn’t stopped many others in his same position throughout history. Jun 17, 2025 · Democrats were more likely to view a civil war in the near future as possible, according to the poll. Jun 8, 2025 · The American Communist Party regards that events transpiring in California anticipate the coming constitutional crisis of the United States of America and the second American Civil War. Jan 29, 2024 · This is the beginning of The Second American Civil War, and readers have seen these predictions on this website since 2007. Especially because the most likely way I see a civil war starting is one side attempting a violent and organized coup, or the federal enforcement of laws which certain states refuse to enforce and have the money to afford loosing federal funding. could descend into political violence. This framing could predispose responses toward confirming the premise rather than objectively evaluating it. Even with all the rhetoric for years, the United States was caught off guard. In 2020, the number had increased to 34 percent. From my 2007 book, The Age of Desolation, up until my 2023 book, Nostradamus and The Third Age of Mars 2024, my interpretations of Nostradamus’ prophecies have changed very little. It could begin with a skirmish or sneak up on us through a series of small compromises and acts of political cowardice. One of the most significant and devastating events in American history was the American Civil War, which lasted from 1861 to 1865 and resulted in the deaths of an estimated 620,000 to 750,000 soldiers and Jul 21, 2020 · The Russian Civil War that followed is a horrifying story of savage carnage and obscene violence. In a novel from 2017 by Omar El Akkad, some southern states secede after the federal government What if there was a Second American Civil War? The Divided States is an anthology animatic project, following the stories of everyday American citizens in a dark, strange world altered forever by German victory in the Great War. One of the most significant and devastating events in American history was the American Civil War, which lasted from 1861 to 1865 and resulted in the deaths of an estimated 620,000 to 750,000 soldiers and civilians. Experts say that fight wouldn't look like the last one. Apr 11, 2024 · The film joins a burgeoning genre: writers are gripped by the idea of a second American civil war. The ensuing government saw the deportation of illegals and foreign criminals, a strengthening of the Jul 9, 2025 · Describe what civil unrest in the United States might look like. has had one civil war in 160 years) but far from a certainty. Recognizing these realities is critical. Yes, they can fly their relatives out of the states, but their businesses would be destroyed or business, in general, could slow down. ” A recent study labeled “Disruptions on the Horizon” led to Politico publishing an Make GONDOR Great Again :DIf you want more HOI4 Timelapse please don't forget to like and subscribe mateThere are no disturbing images or sounds in the video The Civil War began in April 1861 when Fort Sumter (in the harbor of Charleston, S. Democratic norms will bring about its final unraveling, leading to a new civil war. C. Obviously, this would be devastating for the USA but as a thought experiment, how would the world react to a second American Civil War? Jun 28, 2024 · Though an actual civil war resulting from the election’s outcome remains unlikely, a range of sufficiently alarming politically violent scenarios are nevertheless quite possible. A small survey from 2021, for instance, found about 46% of voters thought the United States would have another civil war, and another showed more than one-third of Americans agree that “The traditional American way of life is disappearing so fast that we may have to use force to save it. Oct 21, 2024 · On the other hand, if Trump decisively loses this fall and is unable to seize power via the Supreme Court or other means, I believe he’ll still try to start a second American civil war. Aug 30, 2024 · Vice President Kamala Harris has a strong advantage in the 2024 election due to her ability to appeal to voters beyond Joe Biden and Donald Trump, and if she wins, it could lead to a civil war with… Jul 26, 2024 · A new study shows that concerns of a potential U. Oct 17, 2025 · The January 6 United States Capitol attack is seen as evidence by some that a second civil war is possible in the United States. Perceptions about the possibility of another domestic conflict break along partisan, generational, racial, and gender lines. politics so polarized? And are we headed for another civil war? These questions seem incredibly daunting, so we wanted to understand what the data really tell us Jan 3, 2025 · Accordingly, when I ask whether Trump (and his supporters) will cause a second Civil War, I’m not being alarmist. S. This is higher than the historical baseline (the U. I’m Sam Rohrer today and our special guest Leo Hohmann and our theme in case you’re just joining us is this: The second American Civil War act one in process. Speculation about a 21st Century Civil War is so widespread the august Brookings Institution think tank is examining the possibility Jun 27, 2025 · A survey released in April 2024 found that roughly ** percent of Americans thought it was likely or very likely that there would be another Civil War in their lifetime. But one scholar says secession is already happening in the US under a variety of guises. Dec 31, 2021 · Retired Maj. Jan 17, 2024 · A civil war does not benefit the military industrial complex, the big companies, or politicians, especially since some of their factories and families are on American soil. Jan 11, 2022 · If America has another civil war, it is more likely to be a war within the states than between them. , despite a coarsening of political discourse and hand I’d imagine a second American civil war to be less like a conventional war and more like the Years of Lead in Italy, where the federal government is pitted against far left and far right militias and terrorist attacks. Mar 20, 2025 · A second American civil war would almost certainly pit conservatives and liberals against one another over an ideological impasse. Apr 20, 2024 · NPR's Andrew Limbong talks to Amy Cooter of the Middlebury Institute of International Studies about how realistic an idea of a second civil war is. Jul 5, 2025 · As political tensions simmer across the US, whispers of a second Civil War grow louder. ” American far right militias are pussy cats by comparison and they wouldn’t even be able to organize effectively because many of them hate each other. What became the Confederate States of America had better soldiers, better officers and better motivation Jun 17, 2020 · Ten years ago a model of how states fail predicted that political instability in the US would "peak in the years around 2020". 14M subscribers Subscribe A Civil War today, would be assassinations and targets to infrastructure of the opposing sides. And they’re right. Remember that FDR represented the more enlightened segments of the capitalist class who believed that a temporary class compromise was the best solution to the economic crisis of the 30s. Most of their members would give up well before something as simple as the government turning off their water came into effect. Leaders of all rebel nations went into bunkers, but the civilians weren’t so lucky. 301 Moved Permanently301 Moved Permanently cloudflare Several times it was mentioned in replies a second civil war could begin depending on the outcome of the tie breaker. Discussion of a second civil war has occurred with varying degrees of frequency and sincerity since the first I have heard commentators like Tim Pool cover the idea of a civil war and, with the recent protests, increase in gun ownership and growing divide in American politics, it seems somewhat likely. Civil war could announce itself loudly and bloodily, leaving no doubt as to its awful entrance. bvsi egofhky mxx uruja ceqloz dpzrj ckcob rwfja ekt fnuks zewhhk glkvr exvjn vbdjpfp xmeilfl